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Typically, the National Football League's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often serves as a kind of apology. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the coach who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But the latest competition is distinctly unique. The pool of contenders is remarkably strong. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division champions declining and longtime also-rans improving in unison. In an ordinary year, a coach guiding the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in this turbulent and entertaining year, he's facing multiple other outstanding coaches.

This is how the ideal ballot should look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters love QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a quarterback, you're well on your way to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's unlocked him. In the right ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to demonstrate his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's prolonged dominance. Under his guidance, Williams has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a steady dose of play-action and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been capable to spin big plays from nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a specific offensive philosophy. Almost every decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has paid off. This is rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure he did. For consecutive straight offseasons, he was the most sought-after candidate on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a scheme wizard but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an organization.

During a normal season, he would be the runaway favorite. But the current isn't a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are living on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously fickle. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the core is established for long-term winning. However he comes up just short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a similar situation to his counterpart. He's another first-time head coach who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the year, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete all-around ball of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now sits at number five in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the intangibles aspects, which was not a guarantee following his early public appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, he hired newbies. From the head coach on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That kind of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently collapses in practice – as past failures are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But Coen has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped chasing explosive plays and started hunting consistent ones. The coach refocused the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jags have won multiple games consecutively and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the slightest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a skilled team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3

Every Coach of the Year case has a hinge moment. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback move.

Moving on from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and pairing him with an new play-caller might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it defined it. By the mid point of the season, the new QB was an MVP contender. He has cooled off after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of peers.

Still