Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that polarised the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
